The horse race just turned into a marathon. The big Super Tuesday surprise was that Super Tuesday really wasn’t so super. And the winners so far are”¦ the voters and the media.
Those are the bottom line takeaways from yesterday’s fascinating and energizing display of civic engagement. Record turnouts, highly motivated citizens, and two still-competitive races mean the show must go on for both Democrats and Republicans, as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton traded victories and delegates, while the indefatigable Mike Huckabee proved once again that he and his constituency of social conservatives cannot be counted out in what most observers had already decreed to be a two-man race between the resurrected John McCain and the resolute (and rich) Mitt Romney on the GOP side.
Once again the smart money turned out to be counterfeit and the paid pundits were shown to be shallow, as those pesky citizens proved they’re the ones in charge, at least until November. As the biggest single day of nominating contests in history, Super Tuesday was supposed to be decisive; now it appears as if both races will continue for weeks — maybe even months. In the end, what emerged from one of the most complicated days in primary election history – with complex, ongoing delegate counts now superseding voter totals in importance – was really quite simple: the American people want more time to make up their minds, and they have decided to take it.
The unexpected extension of the nomination process on both sides of the political divide is good news for all of us, as an informed, involved and active citizenry is de facto beneficial for our democracy. But it is particularly cheering to mainstream media mavens and television network executives who have already profited greatly from the campaigns to date. Newly involved voters mean newly engaged viewers. Ratings for primary debates –once derided as CSPAN-like snoozefests, but now dressed up as the best reality programs this side of American Idol — have never been higher; nor has the price of advertising for the slew of spots already seen and those now to come.
So what happens next? The frenzy subsides for a short while, then the next “˜Super’ Tuesday of March 4 begins looming large, with its delegate-rich contests in Ohio and Texas, as well as primaries in Rhode Island and Vermont. The Republicans have more states that are winner-take-all, so there may be a quicker decision made in the GOP race, but even that is looking too fluid for any prediction to be safe. The Democrats, of course, have a vastly more diffuse process involving proportional allocation of delegates in many races, so even March 4 may not be determinative. Before that, this weekend’s Louisiana primary and caucuses in Nebraska and Washington will keep voter interest high across the nation; then it’s on to the Mid-Atlantic block of Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. next Tuesday and Wisconsin a week later.
If Super Second Tuesday doesn’t decide things, the suspense will continue to build, with the next large contests for the Democrats not taking place until late April in Pennsylvania and early May in Indiana and North Carolina. And who knows? We may even be seeing campaign ads this summer – right up until the conventions themselves. Good news for the news media, which for once may be good news for the rest of us as well.
